forecasting
High quality forecasts are essential for planning and strategic decision-making, especially in times of change and uncertainty. Covec develops forecasts using a variety of techniques including econometric modelling, trend analysis, economic modelling and stakeholder consultation. Where appropriate, we also incorporate qualitative information obtained from key industry stakeholders and other credible sources into the forecasting process.
Energy demand forecasts
Analysed historical energy demand by a number of industrial sectors and provided projections of future energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions.
Forecasting demand for transmission grid services
Analysis of trends and step changes in demand for electricity at grid exit points, several projects.
International passenger forecasts for New Zealand Customs
New Zealand Customs commissioned Covec to prepare monthly international passenger movements through New Zealand’s three major airports. The forecasts are used by New Zealand Customs to anticipate future staffing and infrastructure requirements.
Passenger forecasts for Cairns & Mackay Airport
Covec was commissioned by a consortium of investment banks to generate annual passenger forecasts to 2030 to support the purchase of Cairns & Mackay Airports in Northern Queensland. The forecasts were the main drivers of the valuation models used by the banks. We have updated the forecasts several times since then to support various processes, including the partial sale of Cairns Airport to Auckland Airport in 2010 and a substantial debt refinancing process in 2011.
Tourism forecasting programme 2002-2010
Covec has managed the Ministry of Tourism’s forecasting programme since 2002. The outputs from this programme include detailed forecasts of international visits, nights and expenditure segmented by purpose of travel and origin, as well as forecasts of domestic visits, nights and expenditure segmented by purpose of travel and type of trip (day vs. overnight). Covec has played a key role in planning and managing the ongoing development of this programme.
Water demand forecasting
The aim of this project was to generate residential water demand forecasts for the Auckland region to 2050. This was done using sophisticated time-series econometrics, which projected consumption on the basis of past trends, and a range of other factors
Water economics
We undertook two projects in 2007. One compared the costs of alternative means of augmenting Auckland's fresh water supplies, including the potential for greater use of water pricing. The second investigated the comparative costs of a set of potential waste-water investment projects.