commercial transaction support
Covec provides two distinct sets of services in the context of commercial transactions. Drawing on our understanding of markets and business, we build demand forecasts and financial models to analyse the commercial value of proposals. Once a transaction has been formulated, we can then analyse its implications for competition and liaise with competition authorities during their deliberations.
Competitive effects of a vertical merger
Expert testimony on the competitive impact of a proposed vertical merger in the Victorian electricity industry, before the Federal Court in Melbourne.
Forecasts of fuel consumption in New Zealand
Covec produced forecasts of fuel consumption in New Zealand as part of the Shell New Zealand sale process. Annual forecasts to 2030 were generated for the retail, commercial, aviation and marine sectors, and for various sub-markets within each of these sectors.
Merger analysis in the carpet industry
Review of the competition implications of a proposed merger in the carpet manufacturing sector.
Merger analysis in the oil industry
Analysis of whether the sale of Mobil's general aviation refueling business to a competitor would substantially lessen competition.
Merger analysis in the waste industry
Detailed empirical modelling of the cost and demand for different forms of waste collection in cities of varying sizes, including modelling economies of route density.
Passenger forecasts for Cairns & Mackay Airport
Covec was commissioned by a consortium of investment banks to generate annual passenger forecasts to 2030 to support the purchase of Cairns & Mackay Airports in Northern Queensland. The forecasts were the main drivers of the valuation models used by the banks. We have updated the forecasts several times since then to support various processes, including the partial sale of Cairns Airport to Auckland Airport in 2010 and a substantial debt refinancing process in 2011.