financial analysis
As the world evolves, the value of business and government activity changes. Covec is often asked to model these changes. Drawing data selectively from a wide variety of sources, we build flexible models that can be used to understand how future risks affect value. We often supply our models to parties our clients are negotiating with; this helps build consensus over values and/or reveals the areas of fundamental disagreement.
Analysis of Trends in the Use of Council Rating Tools
Authored a report on trends in the use of rating tools for the Local Government Rates inquiry.
Analysis of Urban Development Scenarios
Developed a financial model to compare the effects of different urban development scenarios on Council debt, rates and infrastructure charges. This model was the first of its kind.
Asset valuation
Assessment of future utilisation and revenues as input to valuation of a power plant for a potential purchaser.
Development Contributions Policy Design
Wrote a paper that summarises our work on more than 20 development contributions projects. This includes negotiating $10 million in refunds following the judicial review of North Shore City Council’s development contributions policy.
Forecasts of fuel consumption in New Zealand
Covec produced forecasts of fuel consumption in New Zealand as part of the Shell New Zealand sale process. Annual forecasts to 2030 were generated for the retail, commercial, aviation and marine sectors, and for various sub-markets within each of these sectors.
Liberalisation of telecommunications in the Solomon Islands
Negotiating an early end to the monopoly telecommunications franchise, including design of regulatory regime, interconnection rates and estimation of fair compensation.
Liberalisation of telecommunications in Vanuatu
Negotiation of an early end to the monopoly telecommunications franchise including compensation modelling. Provision of complete regulatory service for first 18 months of the new competitive regime, including design and implementation of universal access policy.
Merger analysis in the waste industry
Detailed empirical modelling of the cost and demand for different forms of waste collection in cities of varying sizes, including modelling economies of route density.
Passenger forecasts for Cairns & Mackay Airport
Covec was commissioned by a consortium of investment banks to generate annual passenger forecasts to 2030 to support the purchase of Cairns & Mackay Airports in Northern Queensland. The forecasts were the main drivers of the valuation models used by the banks. We have updated the forecasts several times since then to support various processes, including the partial sale of Cairns Airport to Auckland Airport in 2010 and a substantial debt refinancing process in 2011.
Valuation of broadcasting spectrum rights
Development of a simple, robust and transparent method for valuing the renewal of broadcast spectrum rights.