financial analysis

As the world evolves, the value of business and government activity changes. Covec is often asked to model these changes. Drawing data selectively from a wide variety of sources, we build flexible models that can be used to understand how future risks affect value. We often supply our models to parties our clients are negotiating with; this helps build consensus over values and/or reveals the areas of fundamental disagreement.

Examples of Our Work:

Asset valuation

Assessment of future utilisation and revenues as input to valuation of a power plant for a potential purchaser.

Forecasts of fuel consumption in New Zealand

UBS New Zealand

Covec produced forecasts of fuel consumption in New Zealand as part of the Shell New Zealand sale process. Annual forecasts to 2030 were generated for the retail, commercial, aviation and marine sectors, and for various sub-markets within each of these sectors.

Liberalisation of telecommunications in the Solomon Islands

Solomon Islands Government

Negotiating an early end to the monopoly telecommunications franchise, including design of regulatory regime, interconnection rates and estimation of fair compensation.

Liberalisation of telecommunications in Vanuatu

Government of Vanuatu

Negotiation of an early end to the monopoly telecommunications franchise including compensation modelling. Provision of complete regulatory service for first 18 months of the new competitive regime, including design and implementation of universal access policy.

Merger analysis in the waste industry

Chapman Tripp

Detailed empirical modelling of the cost and demand for different forms of waste collection in cities of varying sizes, including modelling economies of route density.

Passenger forecasts for Cairns & Mackay airports

Covec was commissioned by a consortium of investment banks to generate annual passenger forecasts to 2030 to support the purchases of Cairns & Mackay Airports in Northern Queensland. The forecasts were the main drivers of the valuation models used by the banks. Our consortium was successful in purchasing the two airports.

Projections of trade volumes

Projection of trade volumes through a port as input to projection of future revenues for refinancing and a capital injection for a port upgrade.

Valuation of broadcasting spectrum rights

Ministry of Economic Development (NZ)

Development of a simple, robust and transparent method for valuing the renewal of broadcast spectrum rights.